Political pundits across the country are eyeing the U.S. Senate Race very closely. The consensus around the nation seems to be that if Governor Steve Bullock wins his senate race against Steve Daines, Republicans will lose their narrow margin of control in the U.S. Senate. And if that happens, President Donald J. Trump would surely face another impeachment hearing and likely conviction in the Senate from any one of a number of attempts to oust him by Washington Democrats should he win re-election.
Thanks to his Republican allies in the Montana legislature known as the Solutions Caucus, Governor Bullock has received almost everything he wanted during his first term in office, which was one of his major talking points during his failed presidential run. Bolstered in large part by his success at getting left-leaning Republicans to follow orders, Bullock is neck-and-neck with Steve Daines – his Republican challenger – in the polls.
All Democrats have to do is win a net three seats to take control of the Senate if Biden wins (because his Vice President will cast deciding votes). If Trump is elected, Democrats will need to win four. That ratio may change depending upon whether or not Biden picks a sitting senator as his running mate should they be from a state with a Republican governor who would surely seat a Republican as their replacement (such as would be the case with Senator Elizabeth Warren). Right now, the odds seem to be in the Democrats’ favor.
Democrats only have to defend twelve seats. Republicans have to defend more than twice that many, at 23.
The Cook Political Report rates eight GOP seats as competitive rates compared to just two for Democrats. Four Republican seats are toss-ups, including Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. Four lean Republican. This does not bode well for Republicans wishing to retain the Senate and thus build a hedge of protection around the president and what would likely be his removal even if re-elected.
Many are convinced that the Montana U.S. Senate race is the most important in the United States and the winner there will decide the fate of the Senate and indeed, even President Trump if he is re-elected. With Montana’s other senator, Jon Tester, voting for impeachment the last go-round, there is little doubt that a Senator Bullock would do whatever possible to remove President Trump if the U.S. House were again to file spurious impeachment charges.
Montana has probably never had this much influence in national politics as it will have in deciding the next senator to serve the Big Sky State.