Headlines CDC Shows Montana Coronavirus Is 66% LESS Deadly Than...

CDC Shows Montana Coronavirus Is 66% LESS Deadly Than the Regular Flu

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Currently, COVID-19 is killing virtually no one without pre-existing conditions. Nationwide, the number of deaths is staying exactly the same even though infection rates are growing (or appearing to grow, as testing increases). In Montana, there have been 1083 positive cases. However, studies are demonstrating that far, far more people have the virus than have been tested.

For example, a study from Penn State demonstrates that the infection rate is approximately 80 times higher than seen on positive tests (because most are asymptomatic), meaning that it’s likely that up to 86,840 Montanans have had the virus. The CDC gives a rate of 24% higher than testing shows, meaning that 25,592 Montanans have had it if the Centers for Disease Control is correct. There have been 22 deaths from the virus state-wide, giving a death-rate of only .00025% at the higher figure if Penn State is correct and .00086% at the lower figure if the CDC is to be believed.

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In comparison, within the first 15 weeks of 2020 there were 11,246 cases of the flu in Montana. Of those, 488 required hospitalization (far more than those hospitalized with coronavirus, which we were told would “overwhelm our system”) and 17 deaths. While coronavirus seems to be more contagious than the flu, its death rate is .0015%. In other words, influenza is at least 66.7% more deadly in Montana than COVID-19.

Nonetheless, Governor Bullock continues to demand the public wear masks to protect themselves from a virus that most Montanans will carry and never even show symptoms. And as Bullock stirs up the public with implicit threats to go back to Phase 1 house-arrests and business closures, his fan base is clamoring to make masks mandatory.

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Bullock posted the following meme on his Facebook page…

Despite the science showing that masks are not an effective means of preventing the spread of COVID-19, some Montanans begged that they become mandatory.


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8 COMMENTS

  1. There is some pretty poor journalism (and statistics) in this article. Let me partially illustrate:

    1. The study from Penn State, though recently released, was done on a 3 week time period in March. A lot has changed since then, that was very early in the virus impact in the US, and it is unlikely that the results can be applied across the board today.

    2. “The CDC gives a rate of 24% higher” – that should be 24 times higher, not 24% higher. Probably just a writing error.

    3. The big statistical blunder in this article is to compare *estimated* Covid numbers with *confirmed* flu numbers. This is mathematically flawed, and journalistically dishonest. I am not sure of a good sources for estimated flu numbers, but one article indicated 222k confirmed flu cases in the US, with an estimate of 37M estimated flu cases. (Remember, just like Covid, many flu cases go unconfirmed).

    To put this in perspective, if you reverse the statistical narrative and compare *confirmed* Covid numbers with *estimated* flu numbers (which would be just as mathematically flawed and just as journalistical dishonest), you would get for Montana: Covid death rate = 2%. Flu death rate = 0.0017%. (17/1,889,328 – rounded down because there aren’t that many people in Montana)

    I encourage all to critically examine everything you read or hear.

  2. The Penn State study was specific to the early cases and the CDC number was specific to a different state in a specific timeframe. Why is someone using that data to draw conclusions about MT’s current state?

  3. Please do not listen too the fear, that is being thrown at you, by every direction.
    It’s just away too dismantle our freedoms and liberties.
    If you give up freedom for safety, you deserve neither.

  4. Apparently math is hard. There are 1758 known cases in Montana as of today. 29 deaths. If the CDC suggests 24% more cases than testing shows, then that would suggest 2180 cases. 29 / 2180 ~= 1.33% mortality. I have no idea where you conjured up 25,592 cases in Montana.

    This article depends on inflated projections to suggest a lower mortality rate. Without solid data, it seems to be spinning the story to beg the question. Regardless, the aggregate CDC data shows that the worldwide data points toward the same trend – significantly higher mortality rate than flu, converging between 0.5% and 1.5% . Montana’s sample size is small enough and spotty enough to skew the conclusions, but tangible data still points in the same direction. We know of 1758 cases, and 29 deaths, ~1.65% mortality in the state. If we conjure up tons of unreported cases, we can indeed get a lower mortality rate. But that’s not data, and the same can be done with the flu – how many reported cases of flu vs how many real cases.

    This hot-take on the topic is just conjecture from a journalist who wants to tell a story that conflicts with the real analysis at the CDC. This is heavily biased journalism.

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